Wet Weekend Warning: Plan Your Outdoor Adventures Around an Incoming Atmospheric River

October 30, 2025

Expect a quick taste of calm today before a significant atmospheric river pushes heavy moisture into western Washington Friday into Saturday. The technical discussion from NWS Seattle (SEW) boils down to a simple storyline for outdoor adventurers: a dry, milder Thursday with breezy gap winds — then an escalating, wet, and windy period beginning Friday that will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, strong southerly winds (especially along the coast and northward toward Whidbey), and river rises in vulnerable basins. Unsettled, showery conditions follow through the rest of the weekend and into next week as weaker systems keep the region cool and damp.

Today (Thursday): A weak ridge sits overhead — translate: drier and milder than recent days. Highs in the mid-to-upper 50s are likely in many spots. Be aware of persistent offshore low-level flow producing gusty winds through Cascade gaps (observations show 15–25 mph in the gaps early). Patchy fog will lift with daytime heating; flying conditions at KSEA should stay VFR. For paddlers, calm offshore winds today make for relatively benign coastal conditions early, but watch for localized gusts in places like Grays Harbor and the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

Friday into Saturday: The heart of the story. A robust atmospheric river (AR) arrives Friday morning with a warm front, then a cold front later Friday into Saturday. Snow levels will rise to roughly 8,000–9,000 feet — effectively keeping the precipitation as rain for most recreation zones in the Cascades — but heavy rain rates are expected, particularly over the Olympic Peninsula and northern Washington Cascades. Forecasters are pointing to mean QPF (total rainfall) of roughly 2–4 inches along the coast, Olympics, and north Cascades, with locally higher amounts possible. Interior valleys will see more like 1–2 inches.

Wind-wise, southerly flow increases Friday and peaks Friday night into Saturday morning. The strongest winds will set up along coastal exposures and in places that funnel flow northward (Whidbey Island northward, Admiralty Inlet). Models disagree slightly on gale potential on the open ocean and in the Strait — small craft advisories are likely for coastal waters and parts of the strait, with some guidance showing gusts near or above gale thresholds Friday into Saturday.

Hydrology and hazards: The AR’s heavy rainfall and brief high rainfall rates raise flood concerns. Rivers draining the Olympics (Skokomish, Bogachiel) and some north Cascade basins are the primary flood targets. Flash flooding and debris flows are a real risk on recently burned slopes or in areas with poor drainage. Travel impacts are likely: swollen creeks, high water crossings, localized road flooding, and increasing landslide risk on steep slopes. Mountain passes could see wet conditions; late Saturday into Sunday snow levels fall to 3,500–4,000 feet, so higher passes like Stevens might see some wet snow with little accumulation.

Marine forecast: Seas are currently large but easing; however, they will rebound Friday into Saturday to 14–18 ft offshore and remain elevated through the weekend before subsiding next week. Visibility will fall in heavy rain. Small craft advisories are probable for coastal waters, the Strait, and northern interior waters; some high-resolution guidance signals possible gale gusts, so offshore and exposed boaters should delay nonessential trips.

Sunday and next week: The main AR weakens and showers become more showery in nature by Sunday, though additional weaker systems keep the pattern unsettled and wet into midweek. Temperatures will generally run in the low-50s for daytime highs with cooler overnight lows.

What that means for outdoor adventurers:

• If you can move trips to Thursday afternoon, you’ll get the calmest window — good for paddle-sessions, beach walks, or a last-minute mountain approach before the rain. Expect gusty winds in Cascade gaps; secure tents and tarps.
• Friday and Saturday are not ideal for river running, technical ridge scrambles, or exposed coastal sea kayaking. Rivers may spike quickly; steep tributaries and burn scars can produce dangerous flash flows. Plan for cancellations or postponements of any multi-day trips that rely on stable trail or river conditions.
• For day hikes in the lowlands, consider short out-and-backs with waterproof layers and routes away from minor drainage channels and bridges. Avoid routes below steep, saturated slopes and exposed ridgelines during gusty periods.
• If you’re photographing landscapes, the heavy rain and dramatic skies deliver moody shots — but prioritize safety near rivers, cliffs, and beaches with elevated surf.

This forecast carries moderate-to-high confidence for the arrival of the AR Friday into Saturday and for higher rainfall totals focused on the coast, Olympics and north Cascades. Confidence is a bit lower for the exact placement of the strongest winds and any localized gale gusts in the strait and nearshore waters.

In short: Thursday — play if you can. Friday–Saturday — hunker for heavy rain, elevated rivers, and gusty winds. Plan conservatively and keep alternate plans ready.