Coastal Calm Then Weekend Cool — Adventure Forecast For The Coastal Carolinas

October 31, 2025

A quiet, mostly dry pattern settles over the Coastal Carolinas for the next several days, driven by building high pressure from the west. In plain language: think clear skies, cool nights, and crisp autumn days — with a couple of caveats for beachgoers and small boats. Read on for the meteorology translated into real-world advice for hikers, runners, paddlers, anglers and anyone planning to be outside this week.

Why it feels like fall: a ridge of high pressure will build over the region through Friday and hold into the weekend. That suppresses storm development and keeps the air relatively dry. Aloft, the flow is fairly zonal right now as deeper systems retreat east — meaning we’re not watching any major storms in the immediate term. Near-surface winds have been gusty from the west tonight, but those gusts will ease by Friday as the high nudges overhead.

Cold-air advection (CAA) will be the main temperature story tonight — that’s meteorologist-speak for a surge of cooler air being transported into the region by the wind. Expect lows in the mid-40s for most locales tonight, with traditionally colder, sheltered inland spots dipping into the upper 30s Friday and Saturday mornings. That opens a realistic chance of patchy frost in low-lying inland pockets on Saturday morning; coastal areas and immediate beaches should remain above freezing.

Daytime weather is friendly. Friday and Saturday look sunny with highs in the mid-60s — pleasant for long hikes, trail runs, or bike rides. Radiational cooling under lighter winds Saturday night will allow a wider spread in temperatures, so inland trailheads and campground sites could be the chilliest places early Sunday.

The wrinkle arrives late Sunday into early next week. Model clusters continue to show uncertainty about a trough or an upper low moving across the eastern U.S. Late Sunday, upper-level moisture and increased clouds are expected. Many solutions develop a coastal low off the NC/SC coast by Monday — that’s the scenario that would bring the best rain chances near the shore. If the low becomes more of a classic cutoff system, a stronger northeasterly flow and broader isentropic lift could push showers into central and eastern NC as well. Confidence in exact placement of the heaviest rain remains moderate to low at this range, so keep an eye on updates if you have coastal plans for Monday.

Marine and surf notes are important for anyone heading to the water. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through about midday Friday for the offshore zones due to northeast swell and gusty winds (gusts to near 25 kt possible overnight). Seas are expected to subside below SCA thresholds by Friday afternoon as winds shift westerly and then northwest. By Saturday, expect mostly light offshore breezes and calmer seas — a good window for shallow-water fishing, stand-up paddleboarding near protected inlets, or offshore trips that can wait until the weekend. Late Sunday into Monday, onshore/northeast winds will increase (15–20 kt) as the coastal low develops, pushing seas to around 3–4 ft (locally up to 5 ft). At the moment models keep conditions mostly below renewed SCA criteria, but seas and wind are expected to be rougher — not an ideal time for small open boats or inexperienced paddlers.

Aviation-wise, VFR conditions prevail through the short term. Pilots and paragliders can expect generally clear ceilings and good visibility until clouds increase late Sunday.

How this maps to activities:

• Hiking / Trail Running: Excellent Friday–Saturday. Inland morning temps near freezing Saturday mean early starts will be brisk and possibly frosty — bring warm layers and microspikes if trails are icy in shaded, elevated spots. Expect calmer, cool mornings and sunny afternoons.
• Beach & Surf: Pleasant daytime beach conditions Saturday, but stay aware of a Beach Hazards Statement still active this evening (local beach zones). Surf may be choppy tonight; rip currents remain a possibility. Sunday–Monday increasing NE flow will roughen surf and raise rip current risk.
• Boating / Kayaking / Paddleboarding: Avoid small craft offshore tonight into Friday morning while the SCA is in effect. Saturday looks best for protected-water paddling and inshore charters. Late Sunday–Monday winds and building seas make small craft operations riskier.
• Fishing: Inshore anglers should find fair conditions through Saturday. Nearshore chartering or trolling should target Saturday; be prepared for a bumpier ride by Monday.
• Camping: Clear nights and cool temps make for classic fall camping; expect to bundle up at camp each night, especially inland.

Key hazards to carry at top of mind: patchy frost/inland low temps Saturday morning, a Small Craft Advisory through midday Friday, and increasing marine winds/seas late Sunday into Monday with a moderate chance of coastal showers depending on how the low develops.

Bottom line: The next 48–72 hours are a gift for land-based outdoor adventures around the Coastal Plain and beaches — crisp mornings, sunny afternoons, and calm seas by Saturday. If your plans include coastal boats or water access late Sunday into Monday, keep flexible and watch forecasts for shifts in the coastal low’s track.

I’ll be watching the model clusters over the weekend and will update the outlook if the coastal low sharpens or if rain chances expand inland. Pack a warm layer for chilly mornings, plan your boat trips for Saturday if possible, and savor the clear-air views on the trails — fall is showing its best face for a few days.