Light Rain, a Taste of First Snow, Then a Warm Gusty Bounce — Outdoor Week Ahead for Northeast ND & Northwest MN

October 30, 2025

A compact sequence of weather features will guide outdoor conditions this week across northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. The immediate story is a band of very light precipitation that has worked into Minnesota this morning and will very gradually creep eastward. That light rain is riding ahead of a shortwave and a surface trough/warm front anchored to a deeper 500 mb low dropping out of central Saskatchewan. Sky-cover trends and a front passage will be the small but crucial details that change what you see on the trail.

Today: Expect mostly cloudy skies with a late-morning brightening in parts of the Red River Valley and eastern North Dakota. The rain shield is weak — radar looks brighter than what reaches the ground because the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere are dry. So far accumulations are tiny (traces to a few hundredths of an inch) and impacts will be negligible. Winds from the WSW at roughly 10–15 mph will make it feel a little brisk on exposed ridgelines and lakeshores.

Tonight into Friday morning: As the upper low approaches and a cold front surges in from the north, low stratus will fill in and high-resolution ensembles (HREF, REFS) have nudged up the probability of seeing snow in portions of the western side of the forecast area. There’s roughly a 60% chance for measurable snow (light, mostly dustings) west of the Red River Valley — places like the Devils Lake basin, James and Sheyenne River valleys — with the most likely impacts being light crusting on grass, vehicles, and other cold surfaces. Elsewhere the chance drops to near 20% and any flakes would be fleeting. Ground temperatures remain warm enough that even where flakes fall, accumulations on roads are unlikely. Overnight ceilings will lower — aviation briefings point to falling MVFR/IFR ceilings late tonight as the upper low drifts southeast.

Friday day into Friday night: The stacked low moves southeast through central ND. Precipitation amounts remain very light — most spots should see under 0.05 inches of liquid equivalent — with a brief mixing window where rain briefly flips to light snow in the coldest pockets. Gusty northwest winds develop across eastern ND tonight into Friday, which will sap temperatures and make for chilly, raw conditions for any exposed outdoor plans.

Weekend and next week: A short-lived ridge builds behind the departing low. Saturday will be calmer and partly sunny. Sunday, however, brings the warmest temperatures of the week with gusty WSW winds and highs climbing into the mid 50s — low 60s are possible in some southern parts of the area. That warm, breezy pattern lingers into early next week: models keep temperatures about 10–15°F above normal Monday through Wednesday as a strong north Pacific jet races along the Canada–US border, steering quick-moving systems to our north and keeping our area mainly dry.

What this means for outdoor adventurers: The immediate window (today into Friday morning) calls for flexible, low-impact plans. Expect damp trails, slick leaves and roots, and the chance of a light dusting of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces — enough to be photogenic and to make you reach for waterproof footwear, but not enough to force cancellations. Friday’s northwest gusts mean exposed ridge running, windsurfing on smaller lakes, or open-water paddling will feel tougher and chillier; secure any gear. The payoff arrives Sunday — an energetic, warmer day suited to longer rides, wind-borne lake sports, and trail maintenance or longer day hikes — but watch the gusts and loosened limbs over trails.

Small details to file away: 1) Radar overstates precipitation at times due to a dry sub-cloud layer — so drizzle shown on radar may not reach the forest floor. 2) Early-season snow under light rates most likely clings to grass and vehicles before roads — don’t be lulled into thinking cold pavement means more icing elsewhere. 3) Aviation and visibility notes: ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR overnight could make sunrise or late-afternoon flights, remote paddles, or long alpine-style approaches more challenging.

Bottom line: Minimal impacts but stay weather-aware as small transitions (cloud cover, a few flurries, or a gusty wind shift) can alter comfort and safety for outdoor plans. Pack layers, waterproof footwear, and a windshell for Friday and Sunday’s gusty windows. If you’re chasing scenery, that first dusting of snow in low spots and across grassy benches will be worth the camera — especially during the clearing and warm-up Sunday brings.