A mature storm tracks northeast tonight, ending steady rain for many but leaving lake-effect and upslope showers in the Laurel Highlands and gusty WNW winds Friday. Plan lower-elevation or sheltered activities Friday, secure gear, and watch the Wind Advisory — trick-or-treat will be raw and blustery.
Updated:
This forecast discussion covers the full NWS State College forecast area — central and western Pennsylvania, including the Laurel Highlands, Allegheny Plateau, Susquehanna and Cumberland Valleys, and the counties listed in the official products — not just State College.
October 30, 2025
A mature, slow-moving storm is sitting over Pennsylvania this afternoon and will slide northeast into upstate New York tonight. Translate that for the trail, river, or ridge: the steady rain that soaked central PA today will ease from many places tonight, but low-level moisture, lake-enhanced and upslope showers, and a fresh shot of westerly wind will keep things unsettled — especially across the higher terrain and the western mountains.
What the NWS discussion is saying in plain language and what it means for adventurers:
Storm behavior and timing: The surface low is consolidating and drifting NE, which will open a dry slot for the central Ridge-and-Valley and SE Piedmont late today. Practically, that means rain will taper for many valley locations this evening, but the Laurel Highlands and other upslope zones remain in the moisture conveyor and will see periodic showers overnight and into Friday.
Wind: A well-aligned west–northwest flow will allow stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface. Expect gusty WNW winds Friday — commonly into the 30s (mph), with frequent gusts approaching advisory criteria (40–50 mph) over higher terrain and parts of the southwest forecast area. A Wind Advisory is in effect Friday morning into Friday night for much of the region. For outdoor recreation, high-profile vehicles, rope hangs, camp tarps, and exposed ridge routes are at highest risk.
Temperatures and wintry notes: Lows tonight will drop into the mid 30s across the north and west, mid–upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Friday will be chilly: highs mostly in the mid 40s in the north and mountains, mid 50s in the SE downsloping areas. Marginal cold air and lake-enhanced showers could produce a few wet snowflakes on the highest Laurel ridges near dawn Friday, but the ground is too warm for accumulation — most people won’t see flakes.
Showers and lake-effect: A cross-lake component (Lake Erie/upslope influence) will keep showery periods over the Allegheny Front and Laurel Highlands through Friday and into Saturday, with lighter, more scattered showers over the valleys.
Short-term trend: Breezy and raw for Halloween evening — trick-or-treaters should plan for wind-chill in the 40s with persistent gusts. The start of November stays a little cooler than normal, with repeated lake-effect/upslope shower chances and a potential for another mature coastal-ish system around Election Day (models diverge; confidence lowers later next week).
Adventure-focused takeaways and planning notes:
Hiking & ridge days: Avoid exposed ridgelines Friday morning through evening unless you have experience in high-wind conditions. If you do head to the Laurel Highlands, pick sheltered, lower-elevation loops mid to late Saturday when winds diminish and showers become more scattered.
Mountain biking & trail running: Soaked roots and slick rock will be common through Saturday. Downed branches are likely after the gusty period Friday — trail crews may have work to do. Postpone technical rides on narrow, exposed singletrack until surfaces dry and crews clear hazards.
Paddling and boating: Rivers and creeks may be running fuller, and wind on lakes will be strong Friday. Avoid small craft on large lakes Friday; consider sheltered rivers or calm mid-week paddling when winds ease.
Camping & car-camping: Choose campsites with natural wind protection (leeward side of ridges, dense stands of hardwood). Stake and secure rainflys and tarps; expect gusty conditions Friday. If you’re overnighting Halloween, plan for chilly conditions and persistent breeze.
Cold, early snow at elevation: High-elevation hikers in the Laurels could see wet snowflakes predawn Friday — nothing accumulates but it’s a reminder to pack an insulating layer and waterproof shells.
Photography & scouting: Moody skies, low clouds, and wind-swept trees will make for dramatic autumn frames, especially on ridgelines once gusts ease. Use windproof tripods and plan sheltered vantage points during peak gusts.
Where conditions differ within the region:
Laurel Highlands & Allegheny Front: Expect the longest-lived upslope/lake-effect showers, the strongest gusts, and marginal snowflakes at the highest summits. Higher risk for downed limbs and brief visibility reductions.
Susquehanna Valley & Central Ridge and Valley: Dry slot timing should allow rain to taper earlier tonight with gusty but slightly milder conditions Friday (still windy). Trick-or-treat conditions will be gusty and raw.
Cumberland/Lebanon/York: Downsloping will moderate temperatures Friday into the mid 50s in places and reduce the upslope shower threat; still windy and damp, but less persistent rain than the western highlands.
Northern Tier and areas downwind of Lake Erie: Frequent showers Friday into the weekend; plan for damp, chilly conditions and a high frequency of short-lived showers.
Records & context: Several climate sites set October 30 rainfall records as the system moved through — Williamsport, Harrisburg, and Bradford all saw record daily totals. That underscores the system’s punch and the likelihood of wet ground and higher streamflows for a few days.
Final practical checklist for the next 48 hours:
This week’s pattern is not a total stop to adventure, but it tilts toward careful planning, lower-elevation choices during the gusty window Friday, and picking sheltered options if you’re aiming for family-friendly or beginner outings. For experienced adventurers chasing wind or dramatic skies, Friday’s gusty corridor and Saturday’s erratic showers can provide raw, cinematic conditions — with the caveat that safety margins for weather, anchored gear, and conservative route choice must be higher than usual.
Widespread rain tapering for many areas tonight but persistent upslope/lake-effect showers in the western mountains plus gusty WNW winds Friday (advisory-level in places) reduce overall suitability. Best for sheltered, lower-elevation, or wind-tolerant activities.
Favors sheltered hikes, scenic drives, and photography of storm-scapes when winds ease.
Unfavorable for exposed ridge hikes, small-craft boating, and technical trail riding during the gusty Friday window.
Good for seasoned wind-sports enthusiasts on large lakes if winds are safely predictable and water conditions allow (but not recommended during advisory periods).
A consolidating surface low moves NE into New York this evening. A dry slot will allow rain to end for many valley locations tonight, but lake-enhanced and upslope showers persist across the western mountains. Strong WNW flow will allow gusty winds to mix down Friday; cooler air filters in through early November with repeated lake-effect/upslope shower chances.
Mature east–west elongated surface low tracking NE
Serly low-level jet feeding showery precipitation ahead of the low
Dry slot opening over Central Ridge-and-Valley late today
Well-aligned WNW flow enabling strong gusts to mix to the surface Friday
Lake Erie cross-lake flow producing lake-enhanced showers downwind of the lake and upslope zones
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The dry slot should allow valleys and lower elevations to dry out earlier than the mountains. Midday offers the best chance for reduced showers and lighter winds.
Friday midday through early afternoon
Avoid exposed ridge connectors and have a waterproof shell; watch for muddy trail sections.
Gusty WNW flow Friday creates dramatic low-cloud movement and wind-swept tree silhouettes once you find a lee-protected viewpoint.
Friday late afternoon when winds are strong but visibility improves
Tripods can be unstable in gusts; pick a sheltered rock or use heavy camera straps.
High winds on lakes Friday make open-water launches risky; rivers and creeks running a little higher but calmer in protected bends provide a safer paddling window.
Sunday midday when winds slacken and showers are less frequent
Check river levels and avoid swift, debris-filled sections; wear a PFD.
After the gusty period, trails will likely have downed limbs and debris; pair a short hike with light trail clearing to improve conditions for later users.
Saturday morning after gusts moderate
Use gloves and small hand tools; avoid unstable trees or large limbs.
Wind gusts can toss tarps, tents, and unsecured gear. If you must camp, pick a sheltered site and stake or weight down tarps and loose items.
Trails will be muddy and slippery after steady rain. Use microspikes or sticky-soled shoes on steep descents and consider trekking poles.
Temperatures dip into the 30s in higher terrain; pack an insulating layer (fleece or synthetic) and a hat and gloves for evening activities.
Strong gusts can break branches and bring trees down. Avoid camping or parking under large, leaf-laden trees until crews clear damaged areas.
Lightweight breathable rain jacket and rain pants to stay dry in persistent showers and lake-enhanced rain.
Fleece or synthetic insulating layer for chilly, windy conditions and evening cool-downs.
Waterproof hiking boots or shoes with good grip for muddy roots and wet rock.
Helps with balance on wet terrain and reduces risk of slips on steep descents.
Shorter daylight and potential for delayed travel in gusty or wet conditions make reliable light essential.
"Lower-elevation loops in Rothrock State Forest for a short, accessible outing"
"Early-season moss and fungal displays in shaded Laurel Highlands hollows"
"Migrating waterfowl in riparian corridors"
"White-tailed deer active in low-visibility mornings"
"Resident late-season raptors hunting along valley corridors"
"Central Pennsylvania's ridge-and-valley topography has guided travel, trade, and outdoor use for centuries. Old logging roads near the Allegheny Front can provide sheltered routes when main trails are wet."
"Wet trails erode quickly when used aggressively. Stick to durable surfaces, avoid widening muddy trails, and pack out any gear or trash — stormy weeks are when trail stewardship matters most."
"Lower-elevation loops in Rothrock State Forest for a short, accessible outing"
"Early-season moss and fungal displays in shaded Laurel Highlands hollows"
"Migrating waterfowl in riparian corridors"
"White-tailed deer active in low-visibility mornings"
"Resident late-season raptors hunting along valley corridors"
"Central Pennsylvania's ridge-and-valley topography has guided travel, trade, and outdoor use for centuries. Old logging roads near the Allegheny Front can provide sheltered routes when main trails are wet."
"Wet trails erode quickly when used aggressively. Stick to durable surfaces, avoid widening muddy trails, and pack out any gear or trash — stormy weeks are when trail stewardship matters most."
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