Gusts, Lakes, and Soggy Trails: Planning Outdoor Adventure Across Western New York This Week

October 31, 2025

The weather story for western New York this week is a classic fall transition: a deepening low that brings widespread rain tonight into Friday, strong gusty winds Friday (and again early next week), then a weakening lake response over the weekend with a brief drier window Sunday before more unsettled weather returns Monday. Below I translate the NWS Buffalo area forecast discussion into what matters for people who want to recreate outside — hikers, paddlers, cyclists, anglers, and anyone who chases views along the lakeshores.

What’s coming (plain language)

A large, intensifying low-pressure system moves northeast across Pennsylvania into central New York tonight, then tracks toward southern Quebec and New England Friday. That’s the reason for steady rain tonight with most areas receiving roughly a quarter to an inch tonight and an additional half to three quarters of an inch possible Friday as the system tightens the pressure gradient and taps stronger winds aloft.

The wind story: a potent low-level jet (around 50 knots at ~850 mb) will advect down-momentum Friday, producing widespread gusts in the 40–50 mph range across much of the area. The NWS has a Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday through 5 AM Saturday for most inland counties — Jefferson and Lewis counties are expected to see slightly weaker gusts because the LLJ is less pronounced there. On Lake Ontario, the stronger fetch and open water set-up will allow for gale-force sustained winds on Friday (Gale Warnings are in effect for much of Lake Ontario), and Small Craft Advisories extend on portions of both lakes now into the weekend.

Lake-effect and cold pockets

Behind the main low, cyclonic flow will keep some moisture and instability over the lakes. Expect lake-enhanced showers east and southeast of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Friday into Saturday morning — the response should be modest due to drying and a lowering inversion, but higher terrain such as the Tug Hill Plateau could briefly see wet snow mixing in Saturday morning with a thin slushy coating possible on grass and exposed surfaces.

Timing and temperature trends

Tonight: steady rain and low clouds; lows near 40–45°F. Friday: rain continues with the highest wind gust threat — daytime highs near 50°F but subjectively colder in the wind. Additional rain amounts up to about 0.5–0.75" are possible in many spots. Wind Advisory from 11 AM Fri to 5 AM Sat. Saturday–Sunday: diminishing winds and a much weaker lake response. Highs generally around 48–52°F. Sunday is the drier day of the week. Monday–Tuesday: another trough pushes through bringing a chance of showers and another round of gusty winds (gusts again near or above 40 mph in favored areas). Temperatures stay near or a bit below normal.

What this means for outdoor adventures

1. Trail hiking & trail running — Not ideal Friday. Expect saturated trails, roots and rocks slick with mud, and tree-fall risk in higher gusts. If you must head out Friday, choose short, sheltered trails near towns (lower elevation and away from ridge lines), avoid ridgecrest and exposed summits during peak gusts, and bring a waterproof outer layer. Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning offer the best windows this weekend for longer hikes; trails should begin to firm up on Sunday, though expect lingering wet sections.

2. Mountain biking — Postpone big technical rides Friday. Mud clogs drivetrains and risks damaging singletrack. If you ride Friday, stick to gravel roads or paved greenways and be ready to bail early if winds gust above 30–40 mph.

3. Paddle sports & open-water activities — Unsafe Friday on Lake Ontario and parts of Lake Erie. Gale- and small-craft conditions will make lakes rough and dangerous; even experienced paddlers should avoid launch. The lakes calm somewhat Saturday night into Sunday; still, check local lake forecasts and consider protected waters (inner bays, small rivers) for Sunday outings.

4. Shoreline fishing / surfcasting — Friday’s wind can concentrate bait but is hazardous from rocks and jetties. Avoid exposed breakwalls and jetties during high gusts. Saturday and Sunday provide calmer chances to fish nearshore.

5. Birding & photography — Rain and low ceilings reduce visibility tonight and Friday morning, but strong winds can produce dramatic skies and movement in the canopy — interesting for stormy landscape shots from sheltered locations. Tug Hill and lakeshore vantage points could produce moody lake vistas after the main front passes (Friday afternoon/evening) — but keep a safe distance from cliff edges and wave-swept areas during high winds.

6. Snow-sensitive activities — Higher elevations (Tug Hill) might see wet snow mixing Saturday morning. That’s mostly a nuisance (slushy coatings) rather than a sustained snow event; road crews and hikers should be aware of fast-changing traction conditions on exposed high-elevation roads.

Hazards and safety reminders

• Wind: Gusts 40–50 mph Friday can topple limbs, blow unsecured gear, and make ridge-top exposure dangerous. Secure tents, kayaks, and loose equipment tonight and Friday morning. Avoid large trees during peak gusts.
• Water & marine: Gale conditions on Lake Ontario Friday make open-lake work and recreation unsafe. Small craft advisories are in effect on portions of both lakes; delays and cancellations of launches are likely.
• Wet surfaces: Trails, steps, and shore rocks will be slippery. Use caution and traction footwear.
• Localized power outages: Strong gusts can down lines. Have headlamps, a charged phone, and a basic emergency kit if your trip involves remote or evening travel.

Planning takeaways

• Best multi-hour window for extended outdoor trips: Sunday (drier, lighter winds). Saturday afternoon is acceptable for shorter, lower-elevation activities if you avoid exposed ridgelines.
• Avoid exposed lakeshore areas and water recreation Friday. If your trip depends on calm water, plan for Sunday or later in the week.
• Expect another gusty, showery period Monday into Tuesday — keep flexible plans and monitor the forecast Sunday for adjustments.

Final note from the NWS discussion translated for adventurers: the synoptic low will be the dominant driver through Friday (rain and wind), then the lakes will play a smaller, secondary role over the weekend producing scattered lake showers and a brief wet-snow signal over the Tug Hill Plateau. The main tactical concerns for recreationists this week are wind and saturated ground — treat both seriously and plan activities around the calmer window on Sunday.

If you have a specific route, lake launch, or trail system in mind, tell me where and I’ll tailor the timing and hazards for that spot so you can make a safer call.